The traditional approach to decision-making was based on a simple assumption: the quality of a decision results from competencies and experience of the decision-maker, as well as from the quality and completeness of the data he or she has. This approach worked well for many years. If a decision was based on a thorough analysis of sound information from trusted sources and made by a seasoned, competent professional, in the majority of cases, the choice was optimal. Thus, what an organization needed, was a good system that gathered and analyzed data, as well as the appointment of the most experienced executives to make all the key decisions. However, recent years brought a surprising turnaround. We witnessed shocking stories of the world’s leading, successful business people, who were making disastrous decisions, even though they were using the same approach, tools and data sources. We saw so many heroes of the past going down, together with their companies, burning billions of dollars of their clients and partners.
This is what I concentrate on in decision-making so as to help my clients to avoid the traps set by what is called “the new normal” – a world of permanent, relentless change, where markets are volatile and “black swan events” abound. There are practical ways to improve the way we choose and decide; this is also the subject of my book, published in December 2014.